I enjoyed the first Shrek as much as any adult can really enjoy a cartoon full of bathroom jokes.  Ugh.

I would like to see the Harry Potter movie for sure…I’ve not read any of the books…I figure I’ll wait until I see all the movies…else I’ll be pissed when things don’t match up.  See, if I read the books last, it’ll make it easier to watch the movies later & go…“oooh, so that’s why they put that in there!“

I am interested in Pirates…but that’s really it.  We haven’t been to the movies in quite some time.  We got a gift card to go…but since it was officially a birthday present for Jason…We’ll probably see something HE picks…Probably Spiderman, which I cannot say I am all that impressed with at all.

Hi, this is my first post, and I’d like to address a few disagreements with your predictions…

I do agree with your predictions for Pirates, Ocean’s, Fantastic Four, Evan Almighty, Live Free or Die Hard, Ratatouille, Transformers, Bourne, and Rush Hour 3.

Now you may say, “That’s pretty much everything!“, but I really disagree with the others to the point where I had to post something…

For starters, I couldn’t disagree more on Spider Man 3.  You said it will pass $225 million easy, and I agree.  However I’m sure we disagree on how easy it will pass it.  I guarantee you it will have at least that much before Shrek even sees the light of day.  Spider Man 3 has a good chance of taking back the opening weekend record that Pirates took away from Spidey’s first installment last year.  It opens in the largest number of theaters ever, has the most advanced ticket sales ever, and has no competition in its opening weekend.  The second weekend it has competition with 28 Weeks Later, but that won’t be that huge.  I think that Spidey will likely have $275 million before Shrek is released.  I predict that Spider Man will top out around $350 million.

Secondly, I don’t think Shrek will be hit quite as hard as you think by the opening of Pirates.  History shows that the Memorial Day weekend (the weekend of Pirates’ opening) is the biggest weekend of the year, and has plenty of room for multiple movies.  I think that Pirates will open with over $120 million that weekend, and Shrek the Third will still gross another $60-70 million.  As a matter of fact, I guarantee that.  Memorial Day weekend is THAT big, especially this year.  You can also expect Spidey to have over $300 million by that point, and still have a nice sum that weekend.

Next, I’m moving towards Harry Potter.  First of all, you said that Potter “is always doing over $300 million.“  That is untrue.  The only Potter to get over $300 million is the first one.  The second one reached $260 million, the third reached $250 million, and the fourth reached $290 million.  Moving onto this fifth installment, I think it will reach around $275-$300 million, opening with around $100 million.  The next weekend has little competition, and (coupled with the Monday-Thursday daily grosses) should have the movie reach $215 million before The Simpsons reaches theaters.  Speaking of The Simpsons…

As much as I would love it to reach your predicted total (I grew up with that family- although barely since I’m only 18), I really don’t see it happening.  I think it’s an overly optimistic prediction to even say $200 million.  Had this been 5 or 6 years ago, I’d give you the benefit of the doubt, but the fact of the matter is that The Simpsons are no longer reaching 15 million viewers each Sunday.  In fact, the show is reaching about half that.  The popularity just isn’t the same.  Now it’s still entirely possible that all of those people who were aching for a Simpsons movie a decade ago, could go see this now that their dream has finally come true.  However, the cynicism from those former viewers over the declined quality of the show may carry over for the movie.  I really don’t see this being as big as you predict.  I think this will make somewhere between $150 million and $175 million.  Let’s both hope that it grosses closer to your optimistic prediction.

I know I seem like I am saying I know so much about the box office industry, but I have done alot of thinking about this and am confident in my predictions.  Maybe it’s luck, but I’ve been pretty successful in my predictions for other movies.  For instance, I was able to tell a friend of mine the exact date that the movie 300 would pass 200 million, three weeks ahead of time.  I was right on the money when I said Sunday, April 15.  Also, I predicted Pirates 2 to be the biggest movie of 2006 by far, and I was right then too.  Like I said, maybe it was luck, but I have confidence in my picks for this summer.  We’ll see what really happens for one of our predictions in just a few weeks when all 3 of May’s blockbusters have been released.

Welcome to the board AmdW47.

Thanks for the detailed feedback.  I actually put this together more or less off the top of my head on another board where we discuss movies more frequently than here.  (I was using a movie date list for the summer movies but didn’t actively research anything else when I was writing it.)  And I knew it would garner some conversation on this board - one of my three homes on the web - so I copied it here, too.

I’m interested in seeing how well I do or don’t do on my predictions.  Almost as much as I am looking forward to seeing my favorites of these movies.  (No, I won’t be seeing them all.  I just picked the movies I figured were going to be or expected to be the biggest movies of the summer.)

Thanks for the welcome.

I plan on seeing all of these with the possible exception of Ratatouille.  I say possible because I haven’t seen much about it as of yet, so I will keep my eyes open for it.  I saw Spider Man 3 for the midnight showing late Thursday, and I loved it.  I’ve heard mixed reviews (I can’t stress how overwhelmingly positive the reviews for 1 and 2 were), but I don’t expect those negative reviews to hurt this one very much at all.  Like I said, I expect it to have about $275 million before any true competition is there.

As for your predictions, as I said before, I agree with them outside of the few that I listed.  Overall, I think this will be the biggest summer on record, and the biggest year also, surpassing 2004 in revenue.

Also, I think that one movie that has the potential to be pretty big is Adam Sandler’s, “I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry”.  Sandler has proven in past summers that he can hang with the best of them and pull out a good gross with The Longest Yard, Click, Mr. Deeds, and Big Daddy all grossing well over $100 million, and all opening in May or June.

Yeah…but Adam Sandler movies are inherently stupid.  People see them b/c he’s Adam Sandler and he HAS had funny work in the past…I think his lucky run will end soon.  People are going to stop giving them such a big turnout just b/c he’s Adam Sandler.

I refuse to see any movie with Adam Sandler in it

I will probably see Spiderman, Fantastic Four (even though I wasn’t impressed with the first one, but hey - Silver Surfer!), Pirates and Ratatouille.

I’m a Harry Potter fan, but I don’t care much for the movies. Not because of the usual book vs. film thing, but because I hate the cast. Not the whole cast (brilliant actors in there), just the actors cast as the main three kids.  I don’t mind catching them on cable because I don’t HATE the movies, I just don’t feel they are worth paying money to go to the theater for

Spider Man 3, Transformers, and Pirates 3, are movies that you cannot miss in threaters…

But I can can wait till The Simpsons and Fansastic 4/Silver Surfer and others come to video.

Ths summer is the time I watch the most movies.  I will watch pirates, shrek, and have already seen spidy 3.  I thought it was pretty good, could have been better.  I may watch transformers b/c of my son (oh what we do for our kids.)  Other wise i will wait for video for a lot of other movies.  I just do not watch many movies or tv.  I’m usually doing other things, like checking this message board

Well the estimates are in, and Spider Man 3 opened with an astounding $148 million, shattering the record set last year by Pirates.  I think it’s entirely possible that Spidey will have $300 million by the time Shrek is released.

My sis saw Spider/3 last night.  She says it seemed a little rushed…b/c of all the villians (there are 3).  It sort of seemed like they crammed a lot into a small time slot.  They should have either taken out some villains or prepared for a # 4.

I really don’t see spidy 4 being made b/c the actors have other things going.  Although I know it’s not imposible, I just find it unlikely.  But, we all know the draw of the paycheck and what Sherlock Holmes theory of the improbable