Now, without further ado (who was doing all that ado, anyway?), here are Tah’s predictions for the 2007 summer blockbusters.
I will attempt to predict how well the ‘big’ movies will do this summer. All dollar amounts are box office amounts for the US domestic box office. Since I don’t see international box office for movies on a regular basis I don’t have a good way to judge that, so won’t even try.
These are the movies that I saw in my Entertainment Weekly magazine Summer Movie Preview issue that I thought of as ‘blockbuster’ type movies. There are some here that are probably questionable under that designation. There are probably a couple others that could be added. But these are the ones I recognized and knew as ‘big movies’. There are plenty of other smaller movies coming out all summer long. Feel free to counter these predictions or add other movies of your own if you want.
May 4 Spider-Man 3 - Kicks off the summer season. This should make $225 million easy. It will be well over $100 million opening weekend, then has another week at the box office before the next major movie comes out. It probably won’t hit the $200 million after just two weeks, but it will be close enough that it will finish well over the mark by the time it’s done.
May 18 Shrek the Third - Never underestimate the power of the animated ‘family’ movies. I think it could easily be argued, especially after Shrek 2, that the Shrek line isn’t necessarily a family movie. Kind of like The Incredibles wasn’t. But it’s close enough that parents will take the kids anyway. It will do well over the $200 million mark and will easily push the $300 million mark. I don’t think it will quite get over $300 million since it’s second week out will see diminished returns thanks to…
May 25 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End - Like the last, this should surpass $300 million easily. Other than Shrek and Spidey I don’t see any serious competition at the box office for three weeks. Plenty of time to make plenty of money and still go strong after that.
June 8 Ocean’s Thirteen - I don’t think this will be a serious contender in the summer blockbuster war. I think it will be lucky to break $100 million.
June 15 Fantastic Four: Rise of the SIlver Surfer - This will probably knock Pirates off the top spot of the box office after three weeks. If it’s anywhere near as good as the trailers make it look it should do well. I think it will end out in the $150-175 million range.
June 22 Evan Almighty - Rumor has it that this movie cost well over $100 million to make (in the $120 million area, I think I read) mostly because of all the animals. That’s a shame because in that case it won’t make much. It has a chance because I’m not sure it has really strong competition until July 4. But I don’t see this going over $150 million.
June 27 Live Free or Die Hard - I honestly don’t see this doing well. I would like it to, but my gut says it will be lucky to make $70 million. It has a family movie opening opposite it this weekend (this opens on a Wednesday) and only a week to make money before the big July 4 movie.
June 29 Ratatouille - I’m not terribly impressed with the trailers for this. But I wasn’t impressed with the trailers for Cars, Monsters, Inc., Ice Age, Over the Hedge, or several other animated movies over the years. And this is by Pixar. It might limp in, but should break the $200 million mark.
July 4 Transformers - The second movie on my personal ‘must watch’ list. (Keep reading the list. I won’t need to tell you which one is my top one.) This one has a week and a half before the boy wizard flies into theaters. And it’s opening on a Wednesday. It will easily make $200 million. I don’t think it will get over $250 million, though.
July 13 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - Harry Potter is always doing over $300 million. This movie, however, happens to come out eight days before the final Harry Potter book hits shelves. I think that might impact it a little bit. This Harry Potter will ‘only’ get $250 million.
July 27 The Simpsons Movie - Did I need to tell you that this is at the top of my list? Didn’t think so. Best. Movie. Ever. (I. Hope.) Well over the $200 million mark. I’m figuring in the $250-275 million range.
August 2 The Bourne Ultimatum - End of the summer. A non-CGI action movie to help bring you down after all the heavy-CGI fair of the summer. It won’t be spectacular, but it will have a decent run. $140 million.
August 10 Rush Hour 3 - End of summer. The other two in the franchise did well. But I see this one having trouble breaking $100 million. It will probably make it in the end, but just barely.
), Fantastic Four - Rise of the Silver Surfer, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, and The Simpson’s Movie. We might go to see Ratatouille, depending on how good the reviews are. Chris is desperate to see the Transformers movie, but I don’t know if I’d bother going with him…
