Is there a web site that explains the limitations of the science of predicting earthquakes? I guess one limitation would be the fact The Earth is so incredibly big and the science has to cope with that.

Peter - 21 September 2011 06:02 PM

Is there a web site that explains the limitations of the science of predicting earthquakes? I guess one limitation would be the fact The Earth is so incredibly big and the science has to cope with that.

It basically comes down to the fact that there is no reliable known measurable precursor to major earthquakes.  Sometimes small tremors occur before a big earthquake, sometimes there are none before a big earthquake, sometimes there are small tremors but no following earthquake.  Sometimes radon gas is released before a big earthquake, sometimes there is none released before a big earthquake, sometimes there is radon gas released but there’s no following earthquake.  Sometimes the water table changes before a big earthquake, sometimes there is no change before a big earthquake, sometimes the water level changes but there’s no following earthquake.  The same with every other sign, such as animal behaviour.  All you can do is to work on probabilities.  You can often tell if an area is a place where an earthquake could happen, but that’s all that you can tell.

And BAM, Italy suffers from having no earthquake warnings at all. Who would want to ever work in that field again?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/10/22/italy-earthquake-scientists-trial.html

...
Seven scientists on trial for manslaughter linked to an earthquake in Italy that killed more than 300 people have been sentenced to six years in prison, a court has ruled.
...

*pounds*

*head*

*against*

*desk*

The stupid.. it burns. It burns so much…

I hope enough people in Italy protest against this. I certainly hope the higher court overturns this. Not only do these experts seem innocent but a lot of people could die because of this insane ruling.

You can´t beat stupidity.

Unfairly Balanced - 23 October 2012 09:03 AM

You can´t beat stupidity.

No, but maybe you *should*.. like, with a big stick…

So now that these guys are in jail who are they going to blame for quakes in the future?  This is a perfect example of people who have no understanding of the physical sciences making a judgement in a case that requires such understanding.

gray - 25 October 2012 12:48 AM

So now that these guys are in jail who are they going to blame for quakes in the future?  This is a perfect example of people who have no understanding of the physical sciences making a judgement in a case that requires such understanding.

Seems to be a growing problem across all sciences. We need Carl Sagan now more than ever.

Peter - 25 October 2012 02:47 AM

gray - 25 October 2012 12:48 AM

So now that these guys are in jail who are they going to blame for quakes in the future?  This is a perfect example of people who have no understanding of the physical sciences making a judgement in a case that requires such understanding.

Seems to be a growing problem across all sciences. We need Carl Sagan now more than ever.

Neil Degrasse Tyson seems to be doing fairly well in that regard.